意昂3开户專家短期授課：公共安全數據分析（Data analysis for Public Safety）（美國馬裏蘭大學姜波博士）

姜波博士畢業於美國馬裏蘭大學，目前是美國馬裏蘭大學犯罪學和刑事司法意昂3研究助理、英國劍橋大學犯罪學研究所導師。曾在新加坡國立大學經濟系、美國賓夕法尼亞大學犯罪學系攻讀本科和碩士👨🏼‍🦳，並在新加坡國立大學商意昂3策略與政策系任教。從2014年起師從美國START主任🧏🏽‍♂️、馬裏蘭大學刑事司法系教授Gray LaFree教授。研究興趣主要集中在采用高級量化分析方法對“人口販運和社會控製”🤦🏼、“監獄與暴力政治極端主義”、“海盜”以及“恐怖襲擊”等問題進行研究。論文發表在國際犯罪學知名期刊《定量犯罪學》等期刊上🗻。其關於“中國南海和馬六甲海峽海盜”的研究論文曾獲得美國犯罪學協會國際犯罪學分會論文競賽一等獎🚴🏼‍♀️。

課程時間：2019年12月17日（星期二）-12月21日（星期六）

課程講解的主要方法、數據和軟件：

（1）涉及方法有空間計量經濟學、生存分析🙏🏿、貝葉斯統計、社會網絡🫵、風險建模🤦‍♂️、機器學習等等；

（2）使用數據庫為免費開放的“美國馬裏蘭大學全球恐怖襲擊”數據庫和“海盜事件”數據庫。

（2）講解主要軟件有ArcGIS、R、Stata等軟件。

English Introduction for ‘Data analysis for Public Safety’

Introduction to the course：The emergence of maritime piracy has caused a great deal of concerns among various dimensions of our society. However, with few exceptions prior research has been hampered by a lack of theoretical underpinning and access to the most appropriate statistical methods. While there are nuances of piracy that can be considered quite unique, in general it can be situated within a broader framework of offending based on outcomes that seemingly share many of the same qualities. My research attempts to improve our understanding of the crime by testing three core tenets of situational perspectives in the context of piracy. Three research questions motivated by LaFree and Birbeck (1991)’s conceptualization of a situation is examined ：

1) To what extent does the study of maritime piracy support the central tenets of environmental criminology and crime and harm concentration at places;

2) How do offender motivation, target suitability and the absence of capable guardians and their convergence impact the instantaneous risk of piracy in South East Asia;

 3) To what extent do economic conditions of fishermen impact the instantaneous risk of piracy in East Africa and South East Asia.

I rely on the IMO-GISIS database from 1995 to 2014, as well as auxiliary data from various organizations to tackle these questions.

First, exploiting spatial econometrics methods, I find that there is statistically significant spatiotemporal patterns of concentration of hot spots and harm spots. The magnitude of the global diffusion of benefits is also estimated.

Second, results from survival analyses indicate that the hazard ratios of the measures of high motivation, absence of capable guardians, suitable targets and their convergence are greater than 1 and significant in both the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. The series of robustness tests based on both frequentist and Bayesian statistics provide similar conclusions.

Third, using a two-stage semiparametric approach, I find that there is statistically significant evidence to show that economic conditions of the fisherman-pirate adversely impact the instantaneous risk of ships being attacked in East Africa and the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. A robustness check based on an alternative specification supports the finding. I conclude with the implications of the research for theory, social policy and future research.

About the speaker: Dr. Bo Jiang obtained his PhD at the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland. He is primarily interested in applying advanced quantitative methods to the study of the causes and consequences of transnational crimes. He is currently a Faculty Research Assistant at the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, and a Supervisor at the Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge. His publications have appeared in theJournal of Quantitative Criminology, among others.

主辦單位：

意昂3平台 意昂3开户 安全科學與工程系

意昂3平台 海洋公共安全研究中心

意昂3平台 安全科技趨勢研究中心